Bolivia's Elections

This post comes somewhat late. After all, Bolivia's presidential and parliamentary elections are later today. I am not going to delve into a lengthy analysis here, but I do want to mention a few things, just from personal observation and conversations with various people.

From what I can tell, there has been very little coverage of Bolivia's elections outside of Bolivia. Even, The Economist (a publication I highly respect) managed to publish only one piece (that appeared online only) back in September. By the time the piece came out, several of the presidential candidates mentioned had dropped out of the race. Unfortunately, Bolivia is largely out of sight and out of mind for most people. So, what can I report on that might change that at least somewhat?

Few question that Evo Morales will be re-elected - the uncertainty revolves mainly around what percentage of the vote he will actually win. Will it be higher or lower than the 53% percent he secured in 2005? Either way, polls show him leading his opponents (Samuel Doria Medina and Manfred Reyes Villa) by at least 30 percentage points. (And according to a new electoral law, even if Morales doesn't win a majority of the votes, if he leads the runner-up by more than 10 percentage points, there is no need for a runoff.) It is really hard to predict what that percentage will be, mostly because polling here tends to be unreliable (and most often underreports support for Morales, given that few polls are conducted in the most rural parts of the country). Most of my colleagues at work will not be voting for Morales, they told me. Why? They think that his government could have done more for the people. Many things could have been improved, they claim. (I just want to note that most of my colleagues are not of indigenous descent.) They applaud the concept of greater equality and more opportunity for the country's indigenous population, but inclusion is not everything. You need educated and competent people running the country and in their opinion (and that of many other people of non-indigenous descent), Morales's government is not made up of those individuals. Now, in El Alto, one of Morales's strongholds, things are very different. There, Morales is God. Two weeks ago, we were on a day trip out of La Paz and drove through El Alto. A huge march was taking place, with rows and rows of people (mostly women and mostly indigenous) filing through the streets. To them, Morales personifies greater rights and improvements in their standard-of-living (Morales started several cash payment programs - to children in public schools, to the elderly, and to pregnant women and promises more; in addition, his government claims to have made significant investments in public works - building health clinics, roads, water connections.)

For these elections, a new biometric system has been put in place. When we arrived in August, the registration process was in full swing. It is quite a feat to register more than 4 million Bolivians in the span of less than a year. (Voting here is mandatory, and everyone received an appointment to register for the new system and provide their fingerprint.) Some say that the new system will ensure a fraud-free process. Others claim that the whole system has been financed by Chavez and Venezuela and is therefore rigged. Members of the elite especially like to argue about the prevalence of fraud during the registration process. And some even fear a full-blown socialist revolution taking place should Morales be reelected - with all foreigners being kicked out of the country and all industries being nationalized (very exaggerated in my opinion).

One other interesting thing is that Morales has refused to debate with the opposition candidates. Not quite sure why that is. Given his strong lead in the polls and influence over state television and radio stations, it seems he would have nothing to fear. It has been somewhat hard to get a clear understanding of the issues at stake and the canditates' stand on them. As one of the blog posts (on issues) cited below mentions, in Bolivia the elections do not center so much around issues but around identity, alliances and class lines. And, a final thought - much as was the case with the Bush administration, many claim that it is actually the Vice President, Alvaro Garcia Linera, pulling the strings when it comes to key decisions. And that he is the one to be feared for extremism and human rights abuses.

What do I think is going to happen later today? My prediction is that Morales will win less than 50% of the vote, but that is more of a guess than any scientific projection. In any case, it will be interesting to follow the results, especially those of the parliamentary elections, since they are projected to be closer to call.

And finally, I can recommend the following, if you would like to read up further (albeit with a delay) on the presidential candidates, how the electoral process works in Bolivia, the issues, and a number of opinions of the elections (WSJ, Heritage Foundation, and political science professor Miguel Centellas's blog).